Thank You for Talking Me Off the Ledge (Metaphorically)

From Infidel 753:

Keeping Perspective

With the end of Roe, the theocratic capture of the Supreme Court, the logjammed Senate, various rumblings of conspiracy against democracy, etc, some have yielded to pessimism and proclaimed an unprecedented threat to the country, the political future shrouded in despair.  While the moan-groan-doom-gloom crowd is pretty much a one-note chorus, and tends to sound the same no matter what the objective situation, it remains true that we face problems that no one before November 2016 would reasonably have expected.

Nevertheless, it's important to keep things in perspective.

It is always tempting to overestimate the depth of the problems of the period in which one happens to live, because we are experiencing them directly, while the much more serious problems of the past exist, for us, only in history books.  Through the great majority of American history the overall situation was astronomically worse than it is now.  We had slavery until 1865, and got rid of it only via a horrendous war that killed off one out of every fifty Americans alive at the time.  Massacres and forced relocations of Indians continued for several decades after that.  Lynchings and terrorization of black Americans, sometimes involving torture and murder as horrific as anything seen during the Dark Ages, continued well into the twentieth century.  Women couldn't vote until 1920 and didn't get fully equal civil rights until several decades later. The right to abortion wasn't nationally guaranteed until 1972.  Just a few decades ago, same-sex marriage, or a black president, seemed unthinkable.  Gay people could still be arrested and imprisoned in some states for consenting-adult sexual activity up through the early years of thiscentury.

Covid looks like a catastrophe by today's standards, but at almost any time before the mid-nineteenth century (if not later), something like the covid pandemic would hardly have even been noticed — it would have been lost in the statistical background noise underneath all the routine outbreaks of mysterious disease which commonly killed much larger percentages of a given population.  The very fact that covid now stands out as a major problem is actually testimony to how successful we've been at eradicating the much worse plagues that beset us for most of recorded history.  And the unprecedented speed with which the vaccines were developed shows how well-armed we are against future new diseases.

What we're seeing now is a roll-back of one or two elements of the immense social progress we have made during most of US history — progress so great that a return to the pre-1972 status quo now feels like a disaster.  It is not the country, as such, that is doing this.  It's a roll-back engineered by a shrinking fundamentalist minority which has managed, by skilled exploitation of weaknesses and oddities of our political system, to thwart the will of the majority and seize control of certain strategic centers of power such as the Supreme Court.  It's a jerry-rigged, gimmicky strategy which can't sustain itself in the long run.  Post-Roe abortion bans, for example, will just generate an endless stream of horror stories which will mobilize voters against the party imposing them.  This is already starting to happen (see recent generic Congressional ballot polling).

The country is not as polarized as we are constantly told it is.  What we have now is a pair of ultra-politicized fringe elements — I call them the progs and the trogs — totally dedicated to a scorched-earth, dead-end demonization of "the other side" in each case.  They make a lot of noise, but they don't represent the majority of the people.  Given time, one party or the other (or hopefully both) will repudiate the apocalyptic hysteria and start inching toward the sensible center.  That's where the votes are.  I already see signs of it.

Never forget that politics is "downstream" from culture.  Political forces cannot stop or substantially slow down cultural change — the decline of religion, the growing acceptance of homosexuality, etc — and culture ultimately shapes everything else, including politics.

There's no denying that some bad things are happening.  But almost every previous generation of Americans faced much worse problems, under far less favorable conditions for solving them, than we do now.  They persevered and won out.  So will the Americans of today.

Shriveling Into Meaningless Trivialities As The Enormity of This Scandal Grows Overwhelming

Via Wil Wheaton

Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony about Jan. 6 continues to drive brutal headlines for Donald Trump across the country. Leading analysts are describing her revelations as alternately devastating, emotionally powerful and historic. Others are comparing her depiction of the former president's insurrection to the most deranged presidential moments in U.S. history.

Yet Trump's propagandists have found an answer. They are claiming Hutchinson's appearance was a flop, based on the fact that a single anecdote about Trump — one barely related to the central allegations against him — is now being questioned by a handful of bit players in this saga who aren't even offering this pushback publicly, let alone under oath.

In addition to providing an object lesson in how pro-Trump propaganda functions, this buffoonery reveals just how weak Trump's defenses have become. The pushback is shriveling into meaningless trivialities even as the enormity of this scandal grows overwhelming.

Trump's defense against Cassidy Hutchinson's Jan. 6 testimony is full of holes

A Voice of Reason…and Hope

Palmer Report has gotten me through some of the darkest episodes of my own political awareness since the events of November 2016. While some of Palmer's analysis has seemed wildly out there, it has given me hope that all was not lost… and ultimately was proven correct.

For that reason, I appreciate his take on today's events at the Supreme Court. If nothing else it gives me a glimmer of hope in this sea of wretchedness we find ourselves swimming in:

Today's Supreme Court ruling, striking down women's most basic rights, is blatantly unconstitutional and frankly just plain evil. There's just no way to properly convey how hideous this is. But it's also something else: this ruling is just so damn risky. It sharply increases the odds of the Democrats winning the midterms and the court being expanded. It's as if they're trying to hurry up and finish the job because they expect to go down soon anyway.

Every action in politics has a reaction. Everyone in politics understands this, even if most political observers don't. Today's move doesn't make the Supreme Court more powerful, it makes the Supreme Court far less powerful. With all the pushback that'll ensue, and the legal and legislative consequences that are about to follow, it'll be much more difficult for the Supreme Court to pull off deranged right wing rulings going forward. The Supreme Court knows this, but decided to blow its wad on this ruling anyway.

It really makes you wonder why. For decades, the right wing has understood that vowing to overturn Roe v. Wade, but never actually doing it, was an easy way to keep getting back into power. It motivated the minority of Americans who oppose abortion to vote in huge percentages. And because the Republicans never did overturn it once in power, the pro-choice majority of voters never acted like single-issue voters on this issue.

But strategically speaking, actually overturning Roe V. Wade is just plain dumb. It will, obviously, motivate the pro-choice majority to turn out and vote with the kind of force we've seen from the anti-woman minority for the past few decades. Whatever the odds were of the Democrats winning the midterms, and of Biden being reelected, those odds just doubled. And that obviously translates to the current Supreme Court right wing majority being dismantled, either through court expansion, or through attrition.

So why do this? With the exception of cult lunatic Amy Coney Barrett, do any of these right wing Supreme Court justices even care about abortion? Sure, their wealthy donors have instructed them to take that position. But even those donors understand how politics works, and that this ruling likely marks the beginning of the end of their control, not the expansion of it.

One possibility is that these Justices, and their mega donors, have simply lost their minds. One odd consequence of the Trump era is that it convinced a lot of other right wing political figures that they're invincible. Trump ran in 2016 on a campaign of swinging for the fences when it came to right wing evil, and of saying the quiet part out loud. It was actually a highly ineffective strategy, and he lost by millions of votes. That strategy also served him so poorly in office, he ended up losing reelection by an even bigger margin.

Yet because the mainstream media (left, right and center) falsely portrayed Trump as "getting away with it all" the entire time, various right wing political figures have since decided to make "bold" (read: stupid) moves under the mistaken belief they could get away with anything. Ask someone like Jeffrey Clark, whose home was just raided by the Feds, or Matt Gaetz, who's reduced to begging for a pardon he didn't get, how that's working out for them. But has the Trump mirage led these Supreme Court justices to mistakenly believe they're invincible too?

Then there's the other possibility. These January 6th hearings, and the DOJ's accelerating aggression, make clear that a whole lot of right wing political figures are going down. At this rate there's a strong chance Ginni Thomas will end up indicted, and it's not clear if Clarence Thomas has legal exposure as well. If Catherine right wingers on the Supreme Court expect to lose Clarence Thomas in this scandal, then they'd be one death by natural causes away from losing their majority.