Month: July 2018

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Three Years

We just passed the three year anniversary of being back in Phoenix. Hard to believe.

I have to be honest. There are things I do miss about Denver, but they're far outweighed by all the things—mostly related the simple act of getting around town (regardless of weather conditions) that I do not miss.

I also don't miss the constant struggle to breathe, something I wasn't even really aware of until we moved back to a much lower altitude.

I obviously miss the summer and autumn weather. With Phoenix now entering the hottest part of the year and the corresponding increase in humidity that goes along with it, things here are pretty damn insufferable outside of air conditioned spaces.

And I do miss snow; I do not miss attempting to drive in it.

Chinese food. I know that's probably not the first thing that comes to mind when you mention Denver, but damn…that city knows it's Chinese cuisine. And from someone who spent sixteen years in San Francisco, that's something.

Entertainment. There are still a lot of performers/films that will come to Denver but never even consider Phoenix.

Politics. For all the progress Arizona has made in social issues, it's still a definite red-violet state, whereas Colorado is definitely in the purple to blue-violet category.

And yet I get the feeling that if things ever really go belly-up in this country, Denver may actually be one of the few safe refuges.

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Where is Everybody?

Fifty Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

Stephen Webb

Stephen Webb is a physicist working at the Open University in England.

Fermi's Paradox:

Enrico Fermi, in response to a lunch time discussion about extraterrestrials, asked the question "Where is Everybody?" (i.e. where are extraterrestrials). This became known as the Fermi Paradox (1950).

Given the vastness of the universe (around 1022 stars), the age of the universe (13 billion years), and the universal laws of chemistry and physics, many assume that life must be present elsewhere in the universe.

The Fermi Paradox. (1) According to the Copernican Principle, there is nothing special about Earth or humanity, so whatever is true here should be true elsewhere in the galaxy. (2) Following this reasoning, Frank Drake predicted the existence of tens of thousands of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations (ETC) and Carl Sagan likewise predicted perhaps a million ETC. Such estimates are typically based on the Drake Equation (1961). (3) At least some of these ETC's must be millions or even billions of years more advanced than us. (4) Given some very reasonable assumptions, even one such ETC could colonize the entire galaxy in as short as 2-5 million years or more conservatively 10-60 million years. (5) If ETC's can spread so rapidly, they should have already reached Earth (or at least we should have detected their existence). Given that there is no definitive evidence (direct or indirect) that we have been contacted by any of these civilizations, then something must be wrong with this chain of reasoning.

If there are a billion ETC's, then the nearest one would be around 300 light years away. If there are only a thousand ETC's, then the nearest one would be around 1,000 light years away.

They Are Here:

This class of solutions posits that advanced extraterrestrial civilizations exist and have visited or are visiting. This is the most popular interpretation among the general populous.

1) They Are Here and They Call Themselves Hungarians

A tongue-in-cheek explanation for famous Hungarian scientists (e.g. von Neumann)

2) They Are Here and Meddling in Human Affairs

Flying saucers, UFOs, etc. are extraterrestrial spacecraft

3) They Were Here and Left Evidence of Their Presence

"Face" on Mars, backside of the Moon, etc.

4) They Exist and They Are Us – We are the Aliens!

Panspermia

5) The Zoo Scenario

A no interference "Prime Directive" is in effect

6) The Interdict Scenario

The presence of many civilizations prevents spreading to Earth

7) The Planetarium Hypothesis

We are inside a giant computer simulation (e.g. like movies Matrix and Truman Show)

8) God Exists

They Exist But Have Not Communicated:

This class of solutions posits that advanced extraterrestrial civilizations exist but we have not made contact. This is by far the most popular interpretation among research scientists

9) The Stars Are Far Away

Long travel times between stars because of speed of light limits travel

Possible solutions: generation ships, hibernation, worm holes, etc.

10) They Have Not Had Time to Reach Us

Diffusion model of galactic colonization

11) A Percolation Theory

12) Bracewell-von Neumann Probes

Self-replicating robots explore the universe on behalf of the extraterrestrials

13) We Are Solar Chauvinists

They might favor stars very different from our own sun

14) They Stay at Home …

15) … and Surf the Net

They prefer virtual reality simulations rather than actual exploration

16) They Are Signaling But We Do Not Know How To listen

ET signals might not use light waves, e.g. gravity waves, neutrinos, tachyons, etc.

17) They Are Signaling But We Do Not Know at Which Frequency to Listen

The electro-magnetic spectrum is broad: radio, infrared, visible, x-ray

The period where a civilization is "radio-bright" (i.e. detectable by signal leakage) might be short

Different SETI strategies targeting different portions of the electro-magnetic spectrum

18) Our Search Strategy Is Wrong

19) The Signal Is Already There in the Data

20) We Have Not Listened Long Enough

If ETC's are be short lived, then detecting them would be difficult

21) Everyone is Listening, No One is Transmitting

22) Berserkers

Berserker probes would eradicate young civilizations to prevent later competition

23) They Have No Desire to Communicate

24) They Develop Different Mathematics

25) They Are Calling But We Do Not Recognize the Signal

26) They Are Somewhere But the Universe Is Stranger Than We Imagine

Aliens transcend physical matter or are exploring alternate universes

27) A Choice of Catastrophes

Perhaps advanced societies always destroy themselves: nuclear or biological warfare, overpopulation, nanotechnology run amok, environmental catastrophes, particle physics disasters, or nearby gamma ray bursts (GRB)

28) They Hit the Singularity

Given Moore's law (computing power doubles every 2 years), aliens might achieve transcendence prior to exploring the stars

29) Cloudy Skies Are Common

Delayed space exploration because of difficulties doing astronomy

30) Infinitely Many ETC's Exist But Only One Within Our Particle Horizon: Us

The particle horizon represents the farthest out it is possible for us to observe but the universe might be infinite in extent

They Do Not Exist:

This class of solutions holds that we are alone in the universe—no other ETC's.

31) The Universe Is Here for Us

If the number of "difficult" steps in the development of advanced life is too large, advance life might not appear before the parent sun becomes too unstable. For perspective, humanity appeared on early about halfway though through the sun's lifespan

Anthropic principle

32) Life Can Have Emerged Only Recently

Life cannot appear anywhere in the galaxy until certain elements build up to certain levels, so ETC's would not have started long before life started here.

33) Planetary Systems Are Rare

Some early models suggested the planetary formation required special circumstances and so would be rare but these models have been overturned

34) We Are the First

Life could not appear anywhere until sufficient quantities of certain elements had built up

35) Rocky Planets Are Rare

Some models suggested that rocky planet's like Earth may require the action of a gamma ray burst but there are more plausible models that do not require this event

36) Continuously Habitable Zones Are Narrow

The Habitable Zone refers to the distance a planet must be from the sun to maintain liquid water. The Continuously Habitable Zone is the region where liquid water is maintained for billions of years as the parent star changes in luminosity.

37) Jupiters Are Rare

Large gas giant planets may be common but they need to be in the right place and have a circular orbit to allow for habitable planets

38) Earth Has an Optimal "Pump for Evolution"

Extinction events (e.g. asteroidal collisions) make room for new life

39) The Galaxy Is a Dangerous Place

Black holes, supernova, and gamma ray bursts

40) A Planetary System Is a Dangerous Place

Snowball earth, super-volcanoes, and mass extinction events

41) Earth System of Plate Tectonics is Unique

Active plate tectonics is needed to recycle critical elements

42) The Moon is Unique

Our moon is necessary for maintaining stability, however, its formation requires very unusual circumstances

43) Life's Genesis Is Rare

44) The Prokaryote-Eukaryote Transition is Rare

Prokaryotes are the simplest organisms. Eukaryote cells are the basis for multi-cellar life

45) Toolmaking Species Are Rare

46) Technological Progress Is Not Inevitable

47) Intelligence at the Human Level Is Rare

48) Language Is Unique to Humans

49) Science Is Not Inevitable

Ancient science was developed by the Greeks (c. 500 BC) but modern science appeared late (17th-18th century)

50) Stephen Webb's Solution to the Fermi Paradox

It is likely that we are alone in the galaxy. Rather than a single solution (cause), it is likely some combination of the above listed solutions. Simple life (i.e. bacteria) may be common but we are likely the only advanced intelligent life.

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Summer of '79

No doubt before a lot of my readers were even born, but there was a lot of really good dance music that came out that year, and specifically that summer. Ironically it also marked the death of the genre called disco, only to have it go underground for a bit and be reborn even stronger as "dance music" in the 80s, defining the sound of the entire decade.

At least that's the way I remember it.

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Gratuitous James Franciscus (1934-1991)

Marooned (1969)

Beneath The Planet Of The Apes (1970)

I can't tell you how many times a certain horny 11-12 year old boy used Mr. Franciscus as masturbatory fodder—especially from the Apes movie…

He was taken from us far too soon. COD is listed as heart failure from emphysema, but with the staggering number of deaths that marked the early 90s, my mind immediately goes to one place and how celebrity passings from AIDS were always reported as something else.

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For the last several months I've been very neglectful to my finny friends. I've been keeping tropical fish since I was in grade school, so it was bothering me that I currently had only two fish left. I didn't let the tank get disgusting or anything, but every time I did a cleaning/water change I swore I'd head off to the store and bring some friends home for them. And each time life detoured me and I never got around to it. I had one large Red Tail Shark and one Black Skirt Tetra.

I get an email flier every Friday from The Ocean Floor describing their weekly specials, but it seemed whenever I had a little extra cash nothing was on sale that I was interested in. Nothing lept out at me from yesterday's email either and despite my Current financial situation I knew I needed to at least add a couple fish to the tank now that it was clean and shiny after least weekend's complete tear down. I drove over yesterday afternoon and ended up coming home with 5 Black Skirt Tetras, 5 White Skirt Tetras, and 3 Honey Dwarf Gouramis. I got the black/white skirts because while they're kind of visually boring, they're a hearty species, have always been a favorite of mine and were ridiculously inexpensive. I got the Gouramis because while I prefer the Pearl variety I haven't seen those in stores in years and the Honeys were such a gorgeous color I couldn't say no…and they were on sale!

So we're populated again and the Shark is for the most part behaving himself. I need to return later next week when they get their next shipment to pick up a couple Corydoras to keep the bottom swept.

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It Turns Out They're Garbage Human Beings

From Daily Kos:

In the New York Times' quest to get to the bottom of what makes every last Trump supporter in America tick, we have been treated to endless interviews, loving tributes to downtrodden towns in which nary a non-white person is ever seen, and one particular day when the op-ed pages were turned over to Trump supporters to argue for Trump's genius directly. But this is still not enough, and so Sunday's paper included a zoological analysis from a journalist who grew up among them.

It is meant to be flattering, or at least neutral, but the short version is that the people who have been bleating about "family values" for the last half-century do not actually give a flying damn about family values and never did. It was all garbage from the get-go. While people from "college" or "in New York" or "religiously conservative" or "liberal" or take-your pick all had harsh words for the crooked, lying, adulterous, misogynist trash-heap of a human being, the salt-of-the-earth Trump supporters back in Nebraska could not possibly care less about the bullshit-laden values attributed to them in fawning tributes to the heartland's common clay.

To hell with it all: Go team adulter-crook!

In contrast, almost all of the people I know in my hometown in Nebraska proudly supported him. They glossed over his infidelities and stressed that he seemed to be a good father. They were impressed by his "respectful" sons and admired the success of his daughters.

"Glossed over" is a fine phrase. "Good father" is quite the phrase itself. And this new notion of "respectful," which apparently consists of "glossing over" his sons' histories of charity fraud, public attacks on black politicians, and that whole 'met Russian agents in Trump Tower' thing, is doing quite the heavy lift.

Reading between the lines, what we have here is a group of people who practice what is known in the rest of the world as aggressive ignorance. You can't say that Trump's behavior bothers you if you drive wooden stakes into both ears and swear you didn't hear about any of it.

Read the rest here.

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On This July 4th…

Posted by my friend Michael:

"Sweet America, I am not unpatriotic, I am an American. I was born in this county and I grew up in this county, I feel privileged to do so. I have never lived in any other county. I love the fact that I live in diversity in a County of immigrants, though I do deeply weep for the fate of our beautiful Native Americans. I wish history could be re-written. So, why the flag in distress? Because I grieve each day for the current condition of our sweet home. I have no respect for our leader or his pack of lying hate-mongers. I hang my head in shame for what our face in the world has become. I cry for the families destroyed, lives senselessly ended and people of color and diversity miserably repressed by an old worn-out "White is Might" pack of fools with nothing but hate in their hearts. I pray that this regime of madness is short and that the damage caused heals quickly. I am not unpatriotic, I am an American." ~ @monster.poodle on Instagram